Wildfire Risk

Nomadino wildfire-risk index on a 0-100 risk-point scale. Lower is better. The raw value combines GWIS burned area, number of fires, Daily Severity Rating fire weather, heat/drought/rain context, forest and vegetation fuel signals, and explicit replacement values for uncovered territories. Score equals 100 minus raw value.
1 Greenland1 risk point 1 risk point 99
2 Faroe Islands3 risk points 3 risk points 97
2 Tuvalu3 risk points 3 risk points 97
4 Kiribati5 risk points 5 risk points 95
4 Macau5 risk points 5 risk points 95
4 Maldives5 risk points 5 risk points 95
4 Singapore5 risk points 5 risk points 95
8 Monaco6 risk points 6 risk points 94
9 Nauru7 risk points 7 risk points 93
10 Saint Pierre and Miquelon8 risk points 8 risk points 92
10 Sint Maarten8 risk points 8 risk points 92
12 American Samoa9 risk points 9 risk points 91
12 Bermuda9 risk points 9 risk points 91
12 Tonga9 risk points 9 risk points 91
12 Wallis and Futuna9 risk points 9 risk points 91
16 Aruba10 risk points 10 risk points 90
16 Liechtenstein10 risk points 10 risk points 90
16 Luxembourg10 risk points 10 risk points 90
16 Norway10 risk points 10 risk points 90
20 San Marino11 risk points 11 risk points 89
21 Anguilla12 risk points 12 risk points 88
21 Bahrain12 risk points 12 risk points 88
21 Gibraltar12 risk points 12 risk points 88
21 Grenada12 risk points 12 risk points 88
21 Samoa12 risk points 12 risk points 88
26 Cook Islands13 risk points 13 risk points 87
26 Niue13 risk points 13 risk points 87
26 Tahiti13 risk points 13 risk points 87
29 Seychelles14 risk points 14 risk points 86
30 Finland15 risk points 15 risk points 85
31 Andorra16 risk points 16 risk points 84
31 Iceland16 risk points 16 risk points 84
31 Saint-Martin16 risk points 16 risk points 84
31 Western Sahara16 risk points 16 risk points 84
35 Czech Republic17 risk points 17 risk points 83
35 Netherlands17 risk points 17 risk points 83
35 Switzerland17 risk points 17 risk points 83
38 Ireland18 risk points 18 risk points 82
38 Qatar18 risk points 18 risk points 82
40 Estonia19 risk points 19 risk points 81
40 Marshall Islands19 risk points 19 risk points 81
42 Austria20 risk points 20 risk points 80
42 Kuwait20 risk points 20 risk points 80
42 Lithuania20 risk points 20 risk points 80
45 Denmark21 risk points 21 risk points 79
45 Poland21 risk points 21 risk points 79
47 Belgium22 risk points 22 risk points 78
47 Germany22 risk points 22 risk points 78
47 United Arab Emirates22 risk points 22 risk points 78
50 Sweden23 risk points 23 risk points 77
51 Latvia24 risk points 24 risk points 76
51 U.S. Virgin Islands24 risk points 24 risk points 76
53 Egypt25 risk points 25 risk points 75
53 Slovakia25 risk points 25 risk points 75
55 Libya26 risk points 26 risk points 74
56 Japan28 risk points 28 risk points 72
56 Jordan28 risk points 28 risk points 72
56 Oman28 risk points 28 risk points 72
56 Saudi Arabia28 risk points 28 risk points 72
56 Yemen28 risk points 28 risk points 72
61 Slovenia29 risk points 29 risk points 71
61 Tajikistan29 risk points 29 risk points 71
61 United Kingdom29 risk points 29 risk points 71
64 Kyrgyzstan30 risk points 30 risk points 70
65 Chinese Taipei34 risk points 34 risk points 66
65 Solomon Islands34 risk points 34 risk points 66
67 Hungary35 risk points 35 risk points 65
67 Zanzibar35 risk points 35 risk points 65
69 France36 risk points 36 risk points 64
70 Puerto Rico37 risk points 37 risk points 63
71 Equatorial Guinea38 risk points 38 risk points 62
71 New Zealand38 risk points 38 risk points 62
73 Barbados39 risk points 39 risk points 61
73 Mongolia39 risk points 39 risk points 61
73 Uruguay39 risk points 39 risk points 61
76 Afghanistan41 risk points 41 risk points 59
76 Belarus41 risk points 41 risk points 59
76 Korea Republic41 risk points 41 risk points 59
79 Saint Lucia42 risk points 42 risk points 58
80 Brunei43 risk points 43 risk points 57
80 Dominica43 risk points 43 risk points 57
80 Guadeloupe43 risk points 43 risk points 57
80 Mauritius43 risk points 43 risk points 57
84 French Guiana44 risk points 44 risk points 56
84 Suriname44 risk points 44 risk points 56
86 Bhutan45 risk points 45 risk points 55
86 Djibouti45 risk points 45 risk points 55
86 Martinique45 risk points 45 risk points 55
86 Palau45 risk points 45 risk points 55
90 China46 risk points 46 risk points 54
90 Israel46 risk points 46 risk points 54
90 Tunisia46 risk points 46 risk points 54
90 Turks and Caicos Islands46 risk points 46 risk points 54
94 Lebanon47 risk points 47 risk points 53
94 Palestine47 risk points 47 risk points 53
96 Croatia48 risk points 48 risk points 52
97 Malaysia49 risk points 49 risk points 51
98 Antigua and Barbuda50 risk points 50 risk points 50
98 Armenia50 risk points 50 risk points 50
98 Cayman Islands50 risk points 50 risk points 50
98 Curacao50 risk points 50 risk points 50
98 Ecuador50 risk points 50 risk points 50
98 Gabon50 risk points 50 risk points 50
98 Georgia50 risk points 50 risk points 50
98 Haiti50 risk points 50 risk points 50
98 Hong Kong50 risk points 50 risk points 50
98 Jamaica50 risk points 50 risk points 50
98 Korea DPR50 risk points 50 risk points 50
98 Malta50 risk points 50 risk points 50
98 Micronesia50 risk points 50 risk points 50
98 Moldova50 risk points 50 risk points 50
98 Philippines50 risk points 50 risk points 50
98 Romania50 risk points 50 risk points 50
98 Rwanda50 risk points 50 risk points 50
98 SĂ£o TomĂ© and PrĂ­ncipe50 risk points 50 risk points 50
98 Sri Lanka50 risk points 50 risk points 50
98 Trinidad and Tobago50 risk points 50 risk points 50
118 Cape Verde51 risk points 51 risk points 49
118 Guyana51 risk points 51 risk points 49
120 Italy52 risk points 52 risk points 48
120 Lesotho52 risk points 52 risk points 48
120 Morocco52 risk points 52 risk points 48
120 Russia52 risk points 52 risk points 48
120 Serbia52 risk points 52 risk points 48
125 Azerbaijan53 risk points 53 risk points 47
125 Bulgaria53 risk points 53 risk points 47
125 Peru53 risk points 53 risk points 47
128 Somalia54 risk points 54 risk points 46
129 Algeria55 risk points 55 risk points 45
129 Kazakhstan55 risk points 55 risk points 45
129 Turkey55 risk points 55 risk points 45
129 United States55 risk points 55 risk points 45
133 Canada56 risk points 56 risk points 44
133 Eritrea56 risk points 56 risk points 44
133 Mayotte56 risk points 56 risk points 44
136 Kenya57 risk points 57 risk points 43
136 Mauritania57 risk points 57 risk points 43
138 Spain58 risk points 58 risk points 42
139 Pakistan59 risk points 59 risk points 41
140 Albania60 risk points 60 risk points 40
140 Argentina60 risk points 60 risk points 40
140 Bahamas60 risk points 60 risk points 40
140 Bangladesh60 risk points 60 risk points 40
140 Bosnia and Herzegovina60 risk points 60 risk points 40
140 British Virgin Islands60 risk points 60 risk points 40
140 Burundi60 risk points 60 risk points 40
140 Chile60 risk points 60 risk points 40
140 Colombia60 risk points 60 risk points 40
140 Comoros60 risk points 60 risk points 40
140 Costa Rica60 risk points 60 risk points 40
140 Dominican Republic60 risk points 60 risk points 40
140 Fiji60 risk points 60 risk points 40
140 Guam60 risk points 60 risk points 40
140 Indonesia60 risk points 60 risk points 40
140 Kosovo60 risk points 60 risk points 40
140 Montserrat60 risk points 60 risk points 40
140 New Caledonia60 risk points 60 risk points 40
140 North Macedonia60 risk points 60 risk points 40
140 Northern Mariana Islands60 risk points 60 risk points 40
140 Panama60 risk points 60 risk points 40
140 Papua New Guinea60 risk points 60 risk points 40
140 RĂ©union60 risk points 60 risk points 40
140 Saint Kitts and Nevis60 risk points 60 risk points 40
140 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines60 risk points 60 risk points 40
140 Ukraine60 risk points 60 risk points 40
140 Uzbekistan60 risk points 60 risk points 40
140 Vanuatu60 risk points 60 risk points 40
140 Vietnam60 risk points 60 risk points 40
169 Iran61 risk points 61 risk points 39
169 Montenegro61 risk points 61 risk points 39
171 Cyprus62 risk points 62 risk points 38
171 Turkmenistan62 risk points 62 risk points 38
173 Niger63 risk points 63 risk points 37
174 Syria65 risk points 65 risk points 35
175 Greece66 risk points 66 risk points 34
176 India67 risk points 67 risk points 33
177 Portugal68 risk points 68 risk points 32
178 Mexico69 risk points 69 risk points 31
179 Iraq71 risk points 71 risk points 29
179 South Africa71 risk points 71 risk points 29
181 Brazil72 risk points 72 risk points 28
181 Congo72 risk points 72 risk points 28
181 Cuba72 risk points 72 risk points 28
181 El Salvador72 risk points 72 risk points 28
181 Ethiopia72 risk points 72 risk points 28
181 Guatemala72 risk points 72 risk points 28
181 Nepal72 risk points 72 risk points 28
181 Nicaragua72 risk points 72 risk points 28
181 Thailand72 risk points 72 risk points 28
181 Timor-Leste72 risk points 72 risk points 28
181 Venezuela72 risk points 72 risk points 28
192 Namibia78 risk points 78 risk points 22
192 Sudan78 risk points 78 risk points 22
194 Angola80 risk points 80 risk points 20
194 Belize80 risk points 80 risk points 20
194 Bolivia80 risk points 80 risk points 20
194 Cambodia80 risk points 80 risk points 20
194 Cameroon80 risk points 80 risk points 20
194 Central African Republic80 risk points 80 risk points 20
194 Congo DR80 risk points 80 risk points 20
194 Gambia80 risk points 80 risk points 20
194 Ghana80 risk points 80 risk points 20
194 Guinea80 risk points 80 risk points 20
194 Guinea-Bissau80 risk points 80 risk points 20
194 Honduras80 risk points 80 risk points 20
194 Ivory Coast80 risk points 80 risk points 20
194 Laos80 risk points 80 risk points 20
194 Liberia80 risk points 80 risk points 20
194 Madagascar80 risk points 80 risk points 20
194 Malawi80 risk points 80 risk points 20
194 Mozambique80 risk points 80 risk points 20
194 Myanmar80 risk points 80 risk points 20
194 Paraguay80 risk points 80 risk points 20
194 Sierra Leone80 risk points 80 risk points 20
194 Swaziland80 risk points 80 risk points 20
194 Tanzania80 risk points 80 risk points 20
194 Togo80 risk points 80 risk points 20
194 Uganda80 risk points 80 risk points 20
194 Zimbabwe80 risk points 80 risk points 20
220 Australia81 risk points 81 risk points 19
220 Botswana81 risk points 81 risk points 19
220 Nigeria81 risk points 81 risk points 19
223 Benin82 risk points 82 risk points 18
223 Mali82 risk points 82 risk points 18
225 Zambia83 risk points 83 risk points 17
226 Chad84 risk points 84 risk points 16
226 South Sudan84 risk points 84 risk points 16
228 Burkina Faso86 risk points 86 risk points 14
229 Senegal89 risk points 89 risk points 11

Last rating: June 14th, 2026

How the Raw Value Is Calculated

The raw value is Nomadino wildfire risk in risk points from 0 to 100. 0 means very low structural exposure, while 100 means extreme exposure to vegetation fires, fire weather, drought and combustible vegetation.

The calculation combines six components: 35% burned area, 15% fire count, 20% fire weather through Daily Severity Rating, 10% heat, drought and rain context, 10% forest and vegetation fuel, and 10% maintained Nomadino context for countries and territories without full coverage.

The main anchor is GWIS/Copernicus. The model uses country values for average burned area, current burned area, average fire count, current fire count and weekly fire weather. All signals are harmonised onto risk points from 0 to 100.

NASA FIRMS, the GWIS methodology for active fires and burned areas, the Global Fuel Map and ThinkHazard are used as public plausibility sources. They are especially useful for small islands, drylands, savannas, heavily forested states and countries with missing individual values.

Important: GWIS measures vegetation fires. This can include forest fires as well as bush, grassland, savanna and some agricultural burning. Savanna and dry-forest countries can therefore receive high raw values, while low-fuel desert states are capped.

Small or dependent territories use explicit Nomadino replacement values derived from administering state, regional fire belt, vegetation, fire weather, island or coastal position and plausible comparator countries.

The score is derived directly from the raw value: score = 100 minus raw value. A lower raw value therefore improves the ranking.